American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
Why would a country that requires close to $90 billion in net foreign capital annually to create jobs, build productive capacity, and sustain rapid growth permit $30 billion of capital to flow abroad, thereby contributing to pressure on the rupee? asks Debashis Basu.
Setting the prescription for a 10 per cent annual economic growth, President A P J Abdul Kalam on Friday asked the Indian industry to sharpen its competitive edge to enhance its share in the global market.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, NTPC and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, ITC, Asian Paints, HCL Tech and Maruti were among the gainers.
Reserve Bank of India Governor, Y V Reddy presented the Monetary and Credit Policy for 2006-07 on Tuesday.
India's new national accounts will leverage new data sources and surveys to enhance the measurement of the country's informal economy, and introduce double deflation methods across sectors, replacing the current system that relies on a single deflation mechanism in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised its forecast for India's economic growth to 7 per cent for the next fiscal year starting April 1 on the back of strong domestic demand and sustained level of business and consumer confidence. With a stronger-than-expected 8.4 per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) during the third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal year, Fitch saw the Indian economy expanding 7.8 per cent in 2023-24 financial year (April 2023 to March 2024), marginally higher than the government's estimate of 7.6 per cent.
India's economic growth had slumped to a decade's low of five per cent in 2012-13.
A stable government and more reforms are needed to hike growth beyond 6%.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
India's GDP growth has slowed down to 6.9 per cent in second quarter of 2011-12 from 8.4 per cent in corresponding period of previous year.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
The Reserve Bank of India's Financial Stability Report indicates that the interim peace deal between the US and Iran has favourably shifted the balance of risks, reducing headwinds from the West Asia conflict. However, it cautions that exchange rate volatility could increase if crude oil prices spike due to delayed normalisation of supply chain disruptions.
Cheering the rebound in India's economy which grew 5.7 per cent in the April-June quarter, highest in the past two-and-a-half years, India Inc on Friday said it expects the GDP to pick up further on the back of conducive investment policies and execution of reforms by government.
The growth in gross domestic product will surpass 7 per cent in the current financial year, finance minister P Chidambaram said Friday.
The Economic Survey on Thursday projected the GDP growth in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent in 2026-27, a tad lower than 7.4 per cent estimated in the current fiscal.
The key question is how much of the latest growth record represents recovery from the 2020-2021 downturn, and what is the sustainable growth rate now, asks T N Ninan.
Capex, infrastructure development, and prudent fiscal management are the key focus areas in the Budget, says Nilesh Shah.
Analysts predict that developments in West Asia, their impact on crude oil prices, and the trading activity of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will be crucial factors influencing the Indian stock market this week.
Agriculture and allied activities are likely to grow at 5.4 per cent in 2010-11, compared to just 0.4 per cent in 2009-10, according to Advance Estimates released by the Central Statistical Organisation on Monday.
He said the 'toxic combination of deep distrust, pervasive fear and a sense of hopelessness in our society' is stifling economic activity and growth.
GDP growth during 2018-19 is estimated at 7 per cent as compared to 7.2 per cent in 2017-18.
India's projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over two per cent to 4.6% by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability, according to a UN report released on Thursday. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report downgraded its global economic growth projection for 2022 to 2.6 per cent from 3.6 per cent due to shocks from the Ukraine war and changes in macroeconomic policies that put developing countries particularly at risk. The report said while Russia will experience a deep recession this year, significant slowdowns in growth are expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South and South-East Asia.
Global brokerage Bernstein has issued a cautionary note, stating that India risks 'under-delivering on its potential' unless it addresses key policy bottlenecks and structural risks, including employment challenges from AI, limited manufacturing gains, and rising welfare spending.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday warned that India's limited crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels - sufficient for only 40-45 days of consumption - leave the country particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in West Asia.
Forecasting 7.2 per cent GDP growth for the current fiscal, industry chamber CII on Tuesday stressed on sustainable development for alleviating poverty and employment generation in the country.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent, on account of the rising economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
India economy clocked a five-year high growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2015-16.
Brokerage Bernstein has warned Prime Minister Narendra Modi that India risks squandering recent economic gains unless it accelerates structural reforms, particularly in jobs, manufacturing and innovation.
India's economic growth rate this fiscal is estimated to be sharply lower at 5 per cent, lowest in a decade, on account of poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sector.
It said that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18, which is the highest among the major economies of the world.
The World Bank on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent from 6.3 per cent estimated earlier, and said the country is expected to remain fastest-growing major economy, underpinned by continued strength in consumption growth.
India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, a UN report has said, warning that the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse economic impacts globally. The UN 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable economies' said that Covid-19 is having far-reaching economic and social consequences for the region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial linkages.
India's defence expenditure surged to $92.1 billion in 2025, making it the world's fifth-largest military spender, according to SIPRI data. This 8.9 per cent year-on-year rise was primarily driven by operational and procurement needs following heightened regional tensions with Pakistan in May 2025.
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
The country's real GDP growth in the first quarter will be better than the Reserve Bank's estimate of 8 per cent, economists said on Tuesday. Economists at the country's largest lender SBI pegged the growth at 8.3 per cent while domestic rating agency Icra estimated it to come even higher at 8.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period.
GDP growth for the current year is expected to be about 8.5 per cent while inflation likely to be below five per cent, Reserve Bank of India Governor Y V Reddy said in Chennai on Friday. "For the current year, though subject to review, current expectations is GDP growth will be 8.5 per cent.Inflation would be below five percent," he said at a management seminar conducted by the Great Lakes Institute of Management.
The Indian economy is likely to witness close to double-digit growth in the current fiscal year despite the second COVID-19 wave ravaging the country, Principal Economic Adviser (PEA) Sanjeev Sanyal said on Wednesday. The economy is slowly getting back to normalcy as the number of COVID-19 cases is declining, he said while participating in India Global Forum event. "We are probably going to see close to double-digit, if not double-digit (growth) in this financial year," he said.
